Habitat use, breeding biology, and effects of climate change on two endemic francolins in Ethiopia

Abstract

This thesis emphasized on two scarcely known rare, cryptic, and endemic francolin species confined to the biodiversity hotspot region of the Ethiopian highlands. Thus, I investigated the occupancy (habitat use) of Moorland Francolin (Scleroptila psilolaema) in pristine and human-shaped landscapes using a camera trap approach and static occupancy-modeling framework. The occupancy and detection probability estimates were higher in pristine Afroalpine habitat. At fine-scale level, the most important determinant covariate for the species was natural predation, where raptor and mammalian predators negatively affected the existence of the species. Herb species richness was also the most critical predictor for target species. Furthermore, landscape metrics, such as proximity to roads, positively influenced Moorland Francolins in the traditionally managed and protected area in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Sampling occasion and average precipitation also positively influenced the detection probability of the species. The future fate of endemic mountaintop bird species in the tropics is predicted to be extinction due to climate change and associated human pressures. This is of great concern to ground-dwelling pheasants due to their natural weakness in long-distance flight, coupled with the elevational limit and narrow habitat requirements at the summits. As such, I used evidence from Moorland Francolin to test mountaintop bird extinction in the face of climate change in the Afrotropics. Here, using an ensemble model of six algorithms, I found that annual mean temperature, and to a lesser extent, other bioclimatic factors were the most important drivers of the current and future habitat suitability for the species. The model predicted that the species encounter a high risk of extinction under future climate change scenarios. For the other endemic species (Harwood’s Francolin, Pternistis harwoodi), I applied dynamic occupancy modeling to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of habitat use in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. Based on modeling averaging, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), quadratic slope and human disturbance index (HDI) significantly negatively influence this threatened species. Furthermore, the thesis focused for the first time on the nesting behavior and breeding biology of Harwood's Francolin in its native habitats. Accordingly, the results highlighted that the breeding success of the species is attributed to reducing the impact of predators through camouflage, nest orientation and positioning, and reducing depositional odor trails. Equally important, the high level of nest attendance by female-only (uniparental) contributed to the breeding success of the species. Therefore, in the face of increasing multiple stressors, particularly habitat loss and climate change, this research on the ecology and breeding biology of two allopatric landfowls is fundamental to provide valuable understanding for species-specific conservation actions in the biodiversity-rich country.