Towards a Behavioural Foundation of Macroeconomics

Abstract

Traditional macroeconomic theories often assume that aggregate economic figures originate in the behaviour of individuals who optimise their utility. In doing so, it is casually taken for granted that all agents act self-centered, profit maximising, and risk neutral. A growing number of studies, mainly from the areas of microeconomics and psychology, contradicts this presupposition. Through data gathered by laboratory experiments it is possible to explore whether humans behave according to theoretical predictions. In order to lay a behavioural foundation to macroeconomic theories, such laboratory experiments can be conducted with a macroeconomic scope. In this dissertation thesis, three different macroeconomic topics are investigated experimentally.<br /> One focus is put on the interlinks between economic policy and the labour market. In a laboratory experiment where players in the role of various institutions interact, the policy decisions of governments and central banks, their motivations, and their consequences are analysed with respect to wages and employment. The reactions of the labour market are mainly in line with theory. If the official sector’s employment goals are not met, governments tend to increase expenditures, whereas the decisions of central banks seem rather to be motivated by the attainment of price goals. The total of the effects observed deliver a new explanation for the existence of a relationship between employment and the inflation rate.<br /> The second emphasis is on the currency trade decisions of firms in the same experiment. The players are guided by interest rate differences rather than by expected exchange rate movements since they are unable to predict exchange rate changes correctly and thus are ambiguity averse. This results in the absence of technical trade, highest profits for interest-conforming traders, and pessimistic expectations concerning the exchange rate. The firms engage in hedging their production-incurred foreign debts against exchange rate risks. A simple decision rule is described on the base of which players would have made profits on average. <br /> A transaction tax as proposed by James Tobin is studied in the third part. Experiments have been conducted with an asset market model that includes equally endowed traders. In another variant of the model, a transaction tax is levied on the asset. The trade volume decreases with an increasing tax rate, and so do the fiscal revenues. Price volatility is reduced drastically under a tax regime. Although the market efficiency is higher on taxed markets, there is evidence for lower efficiency with higher tax rates. Concluding it can be said that the Tobin tax has volatility reducing effects on the market, but the tax rate should be low to limit a negative impact on trade volume and market efficiency.<br /> The last part derives efficient ways to calculate significance levels of differences in two independent and in two matched samples. This is done with Fisher-Pitman permutation tests, which are frequently used throughout this thesis.