Effects of heat and drought stress on cereal crops across spatial scales

Abstract

The production of cereal crops is increasingly influenced by heat and drought stress. Despite the typical small-scale sub-regional variability of these stresses, impacts on yields are also of concern at larger regional to global scales. Crop growth models are the most widely used tools for simulating the effects of heat and drought stress on crop yield. However, the development and application of crop models to simulate heat and drought is still a challenging issue, particularly their application at larger spatial scales. Previous research showed that there is a lack of information regarding the:<br /> 1. Response of cereal crops to heat stress,<br /> 2. Interactions between phenology and heat stress under climate change,<br /> 3. Improvement of crop models for reproducing heat stress effects on crop yield,<br /> 4. Upscaling of heat and drought stress effects with crop models, <br /> 5. Effects of climate and management interactions on crop yield in semi-arid environments. <br /> Five detailed studies were arranged to improve the understanding on the aforementioned gaps of knowledge: <br /> 1. A review study was set up to understand how crop growth processes responded to short episodes of high temperature. In addition, the possible ways for improvement of the heat stress simulation algorithms in crop models were investigated at a field scale. The reproductive phase of development in cereals was found to be the most sensitive phase to heat stress. Crop models aiming to model heat stress effects on crops under field conditions should consider the modelling of canopy temperature. This may also provide a mechanistic basis to link heat and drought stress in crop models. Generally, these two stresses occur simultaneously. <br /> 2. In a nationwide study, the interactions between the advancements of phenology and heat stress on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) due to global warming, were evaluated between1951-2009 across Germany. The increase in temperature (~1.8°C) shifted crop phenology to cooler parts of the growing season (~14 days) and compensated for the effect of global warming on heat stress intensity in the period 1976-2009. The intensity of heat stress on winter wheat could have increased by up to 59% without any advancement in phenology. <br /> 3. A large-scale simulation study was conducted to investigate the effects of input (climate and soil) and output data aggregation on simulated heat and drought stress for winter wheat over the period of 1980-2011 across Germany. Aggregation levels were compared in several steps from 1 km × 1 km to 100 km × 100 km. Simulations were performed with SIMPLACE<LINTUL2-CC-HEAT>. Aggregation of weather and soil data showed a slight impact on the mean and median of simulated heat and drought stress at the national scale. No remarkable differences in simulated mean yields of winter wheat were evident for the different resolutions ranging from 1 km × 1 km to 100 km × 100 km across Germany. However, high resolution input data was essential to reproduce spatial variability of heat and drought stress for the more heterogeneous regions.<br /> 4. Two regional studies were arranged to evaluate the interactions between management and climate on crop production under climate change conditions. A crop model (DSSAT v4.5) was employed to assess the interactions between fertilization management of pearl millet (Pennisetum americanum L.), crop substitution [pearl millet instead of maize (Zea mays L)], and climate in semi-arid environments of Iran and the Republic of Niger, respectively. The pearl millet biomass production showed a strong response to different fertilization management in Niger. The highest dry matter production of pearl millet was obtained in combination with crop residues and mineral fertilizer treatment. The dry matter production of pearl millet was reduced by 11% to 62% under different climate change scenarios and future time periods (2011-2030 and 2080-2099). Results of this study showed that higher soil fertility could compensate for the negative effects of high temperature on biomass production. This was a result of the strong positive relationship between biomass production and the sum of precipitation under high soil fertility. <br /> Crop substitution as an adaptation strategy (new hybrids of pearl millet instead of maize) enhanced fodder production and water use efficiency in present and potential future climatic conditions in northeast Iran. However, the fodder production of both crops was reduced due to shortening of the period from floral initiation to the end of leaf growth under various climate change conditions. Benefits of crop substitution may decline under climate change resulting in higher temperature sensitivity of the new hybrids of pearl millet.<br /> Several conclusions were drawn from this study: It is necessary to consider canopy temperature instead of air temperature in crop models and use data from experiments under field conditions to improve and properly calibrate crop models for heat and drought stress responses. Crop models must also consider that effects of heat and drought stress on crops differ with phenological phases and can be compensated for by responses of other processes. An increase in the intensity of heat stress around anthesis can, for instance, be fully compensated for by the advancement in phenology in winter cereals under climate change. It is not necessary to use high resolution weather and soil input data for simulating the effects of heat and drought stress on crop yield at a national scale; but, high resolution input data are necessary to reproduce spatial patterns of heat and drought. Finally, implementation of management practices in cropping systems may change the response of crops to climate change. For this reason, management practices should be considered as an adaptation strategy.