Impacts of the expansion of aquaculture on global agricultural markets and land use change

Abstract

Aquaculture is one of the most rapidly growing food producing sectors. It has the potential to meet future seafood demand from a growing global population. However, the expansion of aquaculture has led to a continuous increase in demand for feed which has led to environmental issues. Fishmeal and fish oil are important ingredients in the feed given to carnivorous fish. They are accused of unsustainably exploiting fish stocks for feed instead of permitting their use as food for households in the least developing countries. As aquafeed accounts for about 50% of the total farming cost, the increasing prices of fishmeal and fish oil drive producers to look for cheaper and more sustainable alternatives. The improvement of feed technology is likely to replace fish meal and oil with plant-based alternatives. Thus, in terms of animal protein consumption for humans and crop demand for aquafeed, the expansion of aquaculture links seafood production with agricultural markets. <br /> This purpose of this thesis is to assess and quantify the impact of aquaculture expansion on global agricultural markets and global land use via 2030 to 2050. A behavioral market model for fish sector and feed ingredients was developed extending the agricultural sector model, Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Modelling System (CAPRI), for quantitative analysis. The detailed coverage of the fish sector in the model permits the evaluation of various scenarios, such as diet shift, reforms of the European Union (EU) common fisheries policy (CFP), progress in feed technology, and a reallocation of fish used for fish feed to food. <br /> The results of scenario 1 that represents a preference shift of animal protein from livestock products to seafood will lead to a 17% increase in seafood consumption globally. The implementation of scenario 2 where the CFP moves the EU fishery sector closer to maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and thereby permits an increased catch of 12% in the EU, which is primarily exported. Scenario 3-A which represents the technology needed to turn carnivorous fish to vegetarians, is found to have only a negligible impact on global land use change. Scenario 3-B banning the processing of fish caught to fish meal and oil results in a greater seafood supply as well as higher fish meal and oil prices by 16% and 13%, respectively. The reduced prices due to increased supply have increased seafood consumption in Africa by 15%. However, effects on global land use change are also negligible in this scenario.