The multiple dimensions of resilience in agricultural trade networks

Abstract

The global food and agricultural trade network is crucial for food security. Shocks such as those posed by extreme weather events, conflicts, pandemics, and economic crises can test the resilience of the trade network to the sudden interruption of trade flows. Depending on the level of connectivity in the trade network and its structure, such shocks have the potential to propagate through the entire network and can affect countries' food availability and variety. This paper contributes to the literature on food and agricultural trade networks in two main ways: (1) understanding the global trade network as a complex system that can be affected by and responds to shocks, we define and operationalize its resilience as a multidimensional concept, which is shaped by the interdependencies in the network and their structure; and (2) applying techniques from network analysis to examine the evolution of three dimensions of resilience within the global food and agricultural trade network between 1995 and 2019. The main findings show that, between 1995 and 2007, trade connectivity among countries increased. Overall, this bolstered countries' and the network's resilience to trade shocks. However, vulnerabilities persisted in terms of ensuring sufficient product variety and quantity. Adding to these vulnerabilities, trade integration stalled in the second half of the series, pointing to a slight tendency towards trade disintegration and potentially lower resilience of countries to trade shocks already in 2019.