Latka, Catharina: Agri-food policies and Sustainable Development Goals : Quantitative food system analyses. - Bonn, 2022. - Dissertation, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn.
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author = {{Catharina Latka}},
title = {Agri-food policies and Sustainable Development Goals : Quantitative food system analyses},
school = {Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn},
year = 2022,
month = aug,

note = {The agricultural and food system is key to reaching several of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), foremost those on food security (SDG2), reducing waste (SDG12), combatting climate change (SDG13), and reducing biodiversity loss (SDG15). The European Union (EU) has become a forerunner placing the SDGs on top of the political agenda. For example, the substantial EU budget under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is increasingly subject to sustainability requirements. In a globally connected food system, such policy changes can cause spillover effects to other regions through trade, price transmission, and leakage. This thesis sheds light on sustainability-motivated EU agri-food policy options targeting different actors within the food system. In Chapter 2, consumer taxes and subsidies designed to reach nutrition guidelines are assessed for their production implications, environmental benefits, and social burden. Food group specific taxes are found effective in reaching nutrition and environmental targets. However, considerable tax levels are required to achieve the targeted consumption shifts. Chapter 3 combines interventions for food waste reduction on the consumption side with those for food waste valorization as pig feed on the production side. Halving food waste generates larger EU emission savings than its valorization as pig feed. EU savings remain below those expected when not considering market feedbacks, but additional emission savings are projected to arise abroad as consequence of shifting trade flows. Chapter 4 presents the effects of environmentally-motivated EU agricultural producer policies on trade with sub-Saharan African (SSA) regions. Restricting livestock density and nitrogen application reduces EU production levels of meat. This lowers the EU’s agricultural environmental burden and share in agricultural trade flows to Africa. However, imports from other world regions and increasing domestic production fill the supply gap. These three policy-focused studies are conducted using an ex-ante partial equilibrium agri-economic simulation model which allows for a holistic view on food system synergies and tradeoffs. However, the applied foresight modelling tools enable the investigation of food system implications at subnational level only to a limited degree.
Chapter 5 complements these studies by disentangling heterogenous nutrition outcomes at a more detailed level in an ex-post analysis. The effect of unexpected food price volatility on children’s nutrition in SSA is assessed by using an econometric two-stage instrumental variable approach. In addition, the study investigates how international corn futures volatility and weather shocks affect local maize price volatility by applying econometrics and machine learning (i.e., gradient boosted trees, Shapley values) techniques. This analysis reveals that local price volatility in SSA is strongly driven by volatility in global futures prices. Unexpected nonseasonal price volatility increases the occurrence of stunting in children, particularly for rural, agricultural, and poor households.
This thesis contributes to scientific knowledge by disentangling the impacts of various agri-food policies and food system changes, in particular on food consumption, nutrition, agricultural production, and environmental pollution. The main findings highlight (i) the inevitability of tradeoffs, (ii) the relevance of heterogeneity in impacts, and (iii) the implications of global connectedness through trade and price transmission and how these affect policy success in stimulating behavioral change toward achieving the SDGs.},

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