Mapping Present and Future Agroforestry in Africa

Abstract

Agroforestry systems are vital for sustainable development in Africa, offering significant benefits such as enhanced agricultural productivity, biodiversity conservation, and climate resilience. This study provides a detailed analysis of the past, present, and potential future distributions of agroforestry across the African continent using high-resolution geospatial datasets and predictive modeling techniques. Between 2000 and 2020, agroforestry areas have expanded in some, while declining in other locations across Africa. Overall, at the continental level, net economic losses due to decline in the extent of agroforestry systems between 2000 and 2020 made up an equivalent of 14 billion USD. Economic projections point at consistently positive returns from future investments into agroforestry expansion in northern Africa, the northern part of the Sahel region, horn of Africa, and southern Africa. However, there is a strong heterogeneity across the continent in terms of economic viability of agroforestry expansion investments, requiring targeted prioritization to those areas with higher long-term returns. Projections to 2050 indicate that targeted policies and investments can not only prevent agroforestry losses under the business-as-usual trends but also help maximize benefits from agroforestry expansion where it makes the most sense.