Beyond Democratic Backsliding in Myanmar

Abstract

This thesis investigates the root causes, present realities and prospects for resolution of Myanmar's long-standing crisis of political fragmentation and violent ethnic conflict, drawing on an interdisciplinary, ethnographically grounded methodology. Rejecting the simplified post-coup narratives, it argues that the military takeover of 2021 manifested a deeper, long-standing structural failures inherited from colonization, authoritarian centralism, and ethnical marginalization. Analyzing Myanmar's fragmented political evolution from independence in 1948 to the present civil war (2021–2025), this examination locates the current conflict within generations of failed nation-building, democratic degradation, and militarization of ethnic identities.<br /> Drawing on political ethnography, and interviews with resistance actors, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), along with displaced communities, the study outlines how repression, resistance and rival state agendas coalesce. It endeavors to look at the Myanmar crisis through the lens of a multidimensional theoretical framework of contentious politics, internal colonialism, historical institutionalism and federalism theory and critiques the fallacies of state-building paradigms and reimagines Myanmar beyond authoritarian governance. It demonstrates how resistance evolved from symbolic nonviolence to armed insurgency, and how the rhetoric of democracy restoration transformed into a deeper revolutionary - insurrectionist language of systemic transformation that includes de-colonization. However, it also concludes that the sheer scale and bravery of the anti-junta resistance is interrupted by internal distrust, poor coordination and historical grievances among resistance actors due to the ideological incoherence, and the absence of a central coordinating institution.<br /> Against this background, this thesis shed lights on a contradictory and alternative concepts that is based on a pluralist, territorially restructured federal union based on shared sovereignty, inclusive governance and recognition of its ethnic and religious diversity. Drawing on both theoretical models and field-derived insights, it outlines a comprehensive roadmap including eight-state territorial federalism, equitable resource-sharing, absolute religious freedom, and a unified federal army under civilian oversight. The study contends that federalism - if genuinely negotiated and inclusively implemented - remains the only viable framework to transcend Myanmar's "Burmanization" crisis and build a stable, democratic, and multi-ethnic polity.<br /> Centering grassroot narratives and everyday resistance of Myanmar crisis, this thesis challenges elite-centric and top-down analysis. It contributes a new theoretical framework called 'Broader Contentious Political Theory'. Rather than understanding Myanmar crisis solely through episodic and structural lens, this new theory widens the perspective by combing micro and macro perspectives of the crisis and integrates historical institutionalism, and grassroots ethnography analysis into the framework. The thesis ends by arguing that while the perils of state disintegration are real, a democratic federal re-emergence negotiated through fair power sharing is more likely to release Myanmar from protracted civil war than any other alternative.