Change trends in rice-based systems of coastal Bangladesh

Abstract

Rice-based cropping systems are central to food security and rural livelihoods in Bangladesh, particularly in the low-lying coastal delta where agriculture is highly vulnerable to salinity intrusion, erratic rainfall, cyclones, and dry spells. These environmental pressures, alongside ongoing social and economic transformations, interact with diverse farm household characteristics to shape distinct agricultural transformation pathways across heterogeneous coastal regions. While agricultural intensification in Bangladesh has been widely examined, most studies focus on single technologies rather than broader system-immanent changes in cropping patterns and management practices. Thus, my PhD research aimed to: (i) analyze changes in rice-based coastal farming systems over the last decade, (ii) investigate farmers' perceptions, aspirations, and adoption behavior related to intensification, and (iii) examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in adoption trajectories across districts and contrasting production environments. <br/> Diachronic surveys were conducted with 240 farmers in two coastal districts - Barishal (favorable) and Patuakhali (marginal, i.e., salinity-prone, flood-exposed) - capturing system changes between 2011 and 2021. An additional 120 farmers from eight more districts were surveyed to represent the wider environmental and socio-economic diversity. Data included cropping patterns, agronomic practices, yields, labor use, socio-demographic conditions, and farmers' aspirations and perceptions regarding productivity, labor, and risk. <br/> Results show that (i) the type, extent, and pathways of change varied substantially across sites, systems, and seasons. Crop yields increased markedly during the past decade (rice: from 3.0 to 7.8 t ha^–1; mungbean: from 0.4 to 1.5 t ha^–1), though the change trends (speed and intensity of change) differed by crop, season, and site conditions. Dry-season rice outperformed wet-season rice, and yields were consistently lower in saline or water-scarce environments. While farmers in marginal area began adopting intensification-related practices earlier, recent transformations were more dynamic at favorable site. This has produced a patchwork of production systems within the study area. Yet, widespread uptake of yield-enhancing and labor-saving technologies is generating a convergence toward more intensified systems, particularly in dry-season rice and dry-season mungbean. Understanding these trends can help refine intervention targeting and technology development. <br/> (ii) Farmers' aspirations for higher yields, reduced labor demand, and for reducing production risks strongly influenced decisions on technology adoption. Farmers invested in modern varieties, nitrogen fertilizers, and irrigation to boost productivity; mechanization and herbicide use reduced labor burdens; and diversification, better nutrient management, and pesticide use helped manage production risks. Dry-season rice exhibited higher and more stable yields than wet-season rice, particularly in favorable environments. Adoption was highly site-specific, consistent with the "middle-range theory of land system change," articulated by Meyfroidt and colleagues, which emphasizes the importance of context-specific drivers of system transitions. <br/> (iii) Across districts, adoption of intensification-related practices increased substantially, though with considerable variation. The highest adoption rates of intensification practices and associated yield gains occurred in Jashore, Khulna, and Barguna districts. Labor-saving practices dominated in districts facing acute labor shortages (Barguna, Jashore, Narail). Investments in irrigation were concentrated in high-potential, low-salinity areas (Gopalganj, Jashore). Use of pesticides and non-nitrogen fertilizers increased across all districts, while organic amendments increased selectively (notably 28% in Khulna). Cluster analysis highlights strong transformation in Jashore, moderate early adoption in Barishal, Barguna, and Patuakhali, and mixed trajectories elsewhere. Practices enhancing yields (PC1) and reducing labor (PC2) explained 67% of the variance in adoption and performance outcomes. <br/> Overall, coastal Bangladesh is experiencing heterogeneous but increasingly convergent agricultural intensification trends. Farmers combine yield-enhancing, labor-saving, and risk-mitigating strategies depending on ecological conditions, resource endowments, and aspirations. These findings underscore the need for tailored, site- and system-specific interventions to support sustainable intensification and resilience in one of the world's most vulnerable regions.