Mirzabaev, Alisher: Climate Volatility and Change in Central Asia : Economic Impacts and Adaptation. - Bonn, 2013. - Dissertation, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn.
Online-Ausgabe in bonndoc: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:5n-32382
urn: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:5n-32382,
author = {{Alisher Mirzabaev}},
title = {Climate Volatility and Change in Central Asia : Economic Impacts and Adaptation},
school = {Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn},
year = 2013,
month = jul,

note = {Central Asia is projected to experience a significant climate change, combined with increased weather volatility. Agriculture is a key economic sector and a major source of livelihoods for Central Asia’s predominantly rural population, especially for the poor. Agricultural production, being sensitive to weather shocks and climate volatility, may suffer from climate change if no adaptive actions are taken. Taking these into account, the present study seeks to estimate the potential economic impacts of climate change on Central Asia’s agriculture and rural livelihoods, as well as to identify factors catalyzing or constraining adaptation to climate change.
Weather shocks could potentially affect the supply of agricultural commodities and their prices. In this thesis, the effects of weather shocks on agricultural commodity prices in Central Asia are studied at the provincial scale using monthly data for the period of 2000-2010. The study analyses the idiosyncratic components of the variables using feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) panel regression in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and serial autocorrelation. The analysis indicates that negative shocks, involving lower than usual temperatures and precipitation amounts, could lead to higher wheat prices in the region. Lower availability of irrigation water may encourage irrigation-dependent countries in the region to aggressively raise wheat stocks to face expected supply shortfalls, thus leading to higher regional wheat prices. This effect could be further aggravated by negative impacts of lower irrigation water availability on wheat yields.
The estimates of the aggregate impacts of climate change on Central Asian agriculture range between +1.21% to -1.43% of net crop production revenues by 2040. The absolute monetary impact is not negligible, ranging from + 180 mln USD annually in the optimistic scenario, to – 210 mln USD annually in the pessimistic scenario relative to 2010 levels, where optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are defined to correspond to B1 (lowest future emission trajectory) and A1FI (highest future emission trajectory) scenarios by IPCC (2007), respectively. As a key conclusion, agricultural producers operating in inherently stressed environments, such as in Central Asia, may have relatively more experience to dynamically adapt to erratic and changing environments.
The analysis of the nationally representative household surveys using quantile regressions with and without instrumentalizing for endogeneity between consumption and production decisions within the framework of agricultural household model confirms that poorer households are more vulnerable to the impacts of weather and climate shocks with every 1% decrease in the level of their farming profits being likely to lead to 0.52% decrease in their food expenses. A similar decrease for the richest 10% of households would translate to only 0.39% decrease in food consumption. The models also show that the profit effect of potato prices seems to be quite important especially for the poorest farmers.
Many farmers in Central Asia are already engaged in ex post adaptation to the changing climate; however, further Government support is needed for pro-active ex ante actions. A vital mechanism for achieving this purpose is through increasing farmers’ resilience and adaptive capacities to withstand current and future shocks, both expected and uncertain. The analysis shows that key policy actions to achieve this in the region are through: i) increasing awareness of agricultural producers about climate change impacts and adaptation technologies; and ii) improving rural financial intermediation. The key general message of the adaptation analysis in this study is that most institutional and technological options suggested as measures to adapt to climate change in the region are strongly needed for regional development even with perfect climate change mitigation.},

url = {https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11811/5541}

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