Amrouk, El Mamoun: Price dynamics and interaction of international cash crop and staple food markets. - Bonn, 2021. - Dissertation, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn.
Online-Ausgabe in bonndoc:
author = {{El Mamoun Amrouk}},
title = {Price dynamics and interaction of international cash crop and staple food markets},
school = {Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn},
year = 2021,
month = mar,

note = {For a number of net food importing developing countries (NFIDCs), abrupt changes in international staple food prices constitute an important source of macroeconomic instability. Theory suggests that in the face of instable current accounts, due to relatively volatile export earnings and/or food import bills, agents should seek to boost savings, a move that enables smoothing consumption over time. Yet, the ability to increase the level of savings is rather limited in many poor NFIDCs, mainly due to weak domestic financial systems. Their capacity to borrow funds from world markets to finance food imports is also limited because of generally elevated levels of default risks.
A casual review of staple foods and cash crops price series shows that they tend to display a synchronized behavior. This was particularly evident during 2007-2011, corresponding to the period of high and volatile commodity prices. This coordinated price movement means that export revenues, from the sales of cash crops that many NFIDCs rely on, could act as a good hedge against surges in food import bills, and hence, contribute to reducing current account instability. This is because international demand for agricultural commodities is generally inelastic, implying that movements in prices outweigh those of quantities.
This thesis explores the relationship between cash crop and staple food prices by examining co-movements and dynamics in terms of level and volatility. While movements in quantities together with prices determine the direction and magnitude of export earnings, the focus of this research is exclusively on the price component of the equation, given its relative importance. This study applies a series of econometric techniques, including GARCH estimation, wavelet analysis, volatility spillover index, general forecast error variance decomposition, and Bayesian model averaging, to characterize the interdependence between a selection of major international cash crop and staple food price series.
Results show that the intensity of interaction between cash crop and staple food quotations varies considerably, but is generally positive and stronger during the period 2007-2011 associated with high commodity prices and financial market stress. Results also indicate that the level of co-movement and volatility linkages are strongest at lower frequencies (i.e. longer run) than at higher time scales (i.e. short run), with information running from staple food to the cash crop markets. Finally, an analysis of the international sugar market, using a Bayesian model averaging technique, confirms the importance of staple food prices as key determinants of international sugar quotations.
Positive conditional correlation between cash crop and staple food markets means that Governments of NFIDCs can evaluate more accurately their financial needs in the face of current account imbalances due to import bills by taking into consideration the fact that revenues from cash crop exports can reduce funding requirements, and hence borrowing costs. They can also use price information relevant to international staple foods in the design and planning of investment strategies for the cash crop sub-sector.},

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