Facing the future

Abstract

Part one of this paper examines the geopolitical context in which the Balkans are located at the end of the 20th century. It therefore assesses, in turn, the international environment, the regional parameters, and specific country developments. The bulk of the analysis projects and examines three alternative scenarios for the Balkans during the next decade: regional regression, secure development, and progressive integration. <br> The first scenario envisages a major breakdown in the region’s development, marked by accelerating domestic devolutions, spiralling regional rivalries, and growing international isolation. The second scenario depicts a minimal constructive evolution characterised by domestic stabilization, regional cooperation, and increasing international involvement. The third scenario posits a maximal constructive development for the Balkans, involving major domestic transformations, regional Synchronization, and international integration. It is in order to help promote the latter scenario that this paper is offered.