Deriving probabilistic short-range forecasts from a deterministic high-resolution model

Abstract

In order to take full advantage of short-range forecasts from deterministic high-resolution NWP models, the direct model output must be addressed in a probabilistic framework. A promising approach is mesoscale ensemble prediction. However, its operational use is still hampered by conceptual deficiencies and large computational costs. <br /> This study tackles two relevant issues: (1) the representation of model-related forecast uncertainty in mesoscale ensemble prediction systems and (2) the development of post-processing procedures that retrieve additional probabilistic information from a single model simulation. Special emphasis is laid on mesoscale forecast uncertainty of summer precipitation and 2m-temperature in Europe. Source of forecast guidance is the deterministic high-resolution model Lokal-Modell (LM) of the German Weather Service. <br /> This study gains more insight into the effect and usefulness of <i>stochastic parametrisation schemes</i> in the representation of short-range forecast uncertainty. A stochastic parametrisation scheme is implemented into the LM in an attempt to simulate the stochastic effect of sub-grid scale processes. Experimental ensembles show that the scheme has a substantial effect on the forecast of precipitation amount. However, objective verification reveals that the ensemble does not attain better forecast goodness than a single LM simulation. Urgent issues for future research are identified. <br /> In the context of statistical post-processing, two schemes are designed: the <i>neighbourhood method</i> and <i>wavelet smoothing</i>. Both approaches fall under the framework of estimating a large array of statistical parameters on the basis of a single realisation on each parameter. <br /> The neighbourhood method is based on the notion of spatio-temporal ergodicity including explicit corrections for enhanced predictability from topographic forcing. The neighbourhood method derives estimates of quantiles, exceedance probabilities and expected values at each grid point of the LM. If the post-processed precipitation forecast is formulated in terms of probabilities or quantiles, it attains clear superiority in comparison to the raw model output. <br /> Wavelet smoothing originates from the field of image denoising and includes concepts of multiresolution analysis and non-parametric regression. In this study, the method is used to produce estimates of the expected value, but it may be easily extended to the additional estimation of exceedance probabilities. Wavelet smoothing is not only computationally more efficient than the neighbourhood method, but automatically adapts the amount of spatial smoothing to local properties of the underlying data. The method apparently detects deterministically predictable temperature patterns on the basis of statistical guidance only.